CS2 VRS simulator: Singapore Major chances for every team

Europe

6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1

27 teams at 1% or more
ordered by their chance of the Major

Sort: pick a column

	Team
2	Vitality Stage 3 >99%	1,911	>99	>99			1·1–2
3	MOUZ Stage 3 >99%	1,863	>99	>99			2·1–3
1	Spirit Stage 3 >99%	2,046	>99	>99			3·2–4
7	Aurora Stage 3 >99%	1,716	>99	>99			4·3–5
5	Falcons Stage 3 91%, stage 2 9%	1,843	>99	91	9		5·5–6
9	BetBoom Stage 3 42%, stage 2 58%	1,596	>99	42	58		7·5–8
6 seats in Stage 3
6	FUT Stage 3 41%, stage 2 58%	1,799	>99	41	58		7·5–9
4	G2 Stage 3 24%, stage 2 76%	1,847	>99	24	76		7·6–8
30	PARIVISION Stage 2 98%, stage 1 2%	1,411	>99		98	2	10·9–11
8	Astralis Stage 2 96%, stage 1 4%	1,674	>99		96	4	10·9–12
14	Ninjas in Pyjamas Stage 2 89%, stage 1 11%	1,534	>99		89	11	11·10–13
32	1WIN Stage 2 5%, stage 1 93%	1,383	99		5	93	15·13–17
6 seats in Stage 2
12	HEROIC Stage 2 8%, stage 1 90%	1,550	98		8	90	14·13–16
20	FaZe Stage 2 20%, stage 1 72%	1,482	92		20	72	14·12–18
11	Nemiga Stage 2 26%, stage 1 54%	1,551	80		26	54	15·11–20
28	Natus Vincere Stage 3 3%, stage 2 49%, stage 1 24%	1,427	76	3	49	24	12·8–22
10	B8 Stage 1 69%	1,555	69			69	17·14–23
22	100 Thieves Stage 1 57%	1,478	57			57	18·16–21
6 seats in Stage 1 · 18 Major seats in Europe
17	magic Stage 2 2%, stage 1 27%	1,489	29		2	27	22·15–30
19	BIG Stage 2 2%, stage 1 25%	1,482	26		2	25	22·16–29
15	Inner Circle Stage 2 1%, stage 1 22%	1,516	24		1	22	22·16–29
24	JiJieHao Stage 1 17%	1,454	17			17	21·17–25
27	Eternal Fire Stage 1 14%	1,429	14			14	23·18–30
29	fnatic Stage 1 10%	1,417	10			10	25·18–30
23	Nemesis Stage 1 6%	1,455	6			6	28·20–33
13	Luminosity Stage 1 1%	1,547	1			1	26·21–30
34	SINNERS Stage 1 1%	1,359	1			1	27·21–32
16	3DMAX	1,500	<1				24·22–26
26	K27	1,435	<1				29·22–32
18	Alliance	1,483	<1				33·25–35
21	GamerLegion	1,479	<1				31·27–35
25	HOTU	1,437	<1				26·23–32
31	BBL	1,386	<1				32·29–34
33	Sangal	1,362	<1				31·27–34
35	SAW	1,346	<1				38·37–43
36	EYEBALLERS	1,343	<1				40·36–43
37	Betclic	1,333	<1				38·35–45
38	Nuclear TigeRES	1,324	<1				35·33–38
39	FOKUS	1,321	<1				38·35–45
40	Virtus.pro	1,309	<1				45·37–47

Stage 3 + stage 2 + stage 1 = Major Under a name: stage 3 · stage 2 · stage 1 >99: over 99% · <1: under 1% · blank: under 1% Place at cut: median, and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in The lines count rows: sorted by #, they are Valve's lines if the cut were today

Americas

2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1

13 teams at 1% or more
ordered by their chance of the Major

Sort: pick a column

	Team
2	FURIA Stage 3 >99%	1,829	>99	>99			1·1–1
1	Legacy Stage 3 95%, stage 2 5%	1,931	>99	95	5		2·2–2
2 seats in Stage 3
4	9z Stage 3 5%, stage 2 58%, stage 1 37%	1,544	>99	5	58	37	3·3–4
1 seat in Stage 2
3	MIBR Stage 2 35%, stage 1 65%	1,585	>99		35	65	4·3–4
5	Liquid Stage 2 2%, stage 1 98%	1,527	>99		2	98	6·5–7
6	M80 Stage 1 >99%	1,491	>99			>99	5·5–6
7	DENDELE Stage 1 90%	1,368	90			90	7·6–9
12	Wildcard Stage 1 80%	1,239	80			80	8·7–15
9	Imperial Stage 1 56%	1,297	56			56	9·7–11
6 seats in Stage 1 · 9 Major seats in Americas
8	NRG Stage 1 43%	1,322	43			43	10·8–11
10	paiN Stage 1 23%	1,287	23			23	11·8–13
11	Fluxo Stage 1 5%	1,277	5			5	12·10–13
14	BESTIA Stage 1 2%	1,189	2			2	15·11–18
16	ShindeN	1,121	<1				17·13–20
17	Galorys	1,099	<1				16·13–18
18	LP	1,072	<1				17·14–21
15	Voca	1,182	<1				16·14–17
20	Turma do Pagode	1,051	<1				19·17–22
13	SportsBetExpert	1,199	<1				14·12–16
19	Bounty Hunters	1,054	<1				20·18–22
21	Without a Roof	1,033	<1				20·18–22
22	LAG	1,021	<1				23·22–23
23	Marsborne	979	<1				21·19–23
24	ex-Keyd Stars	854	<1				25·24–28
25	Desi Boyz	847	<1				29·27–32
26	Yawara	845	<1				27·24–32
27	Procyon	842	<1				25·24–27
28	regain	808	<1				32·29–36
29	ALKA	802	<1				32·27–38
30	ex-ODDIK	792	<1				36·33–39
31	Iowa Stormboar	787	<1				32·29–36
32	Isurus	783	<1				37·29–45
33	Low Cortisol BR	774	<1				42·35–47
34	Overtake Sector	774	<1				27·25–36
35	UNO MILLE	746	<1				43·32–49
36	Chicken Coop	743	<1				38·34–48
37	FarmVille	737	<1				42·39–45
38	MIBR fe	731	<1				46·41–50
39	DETONATE	724	<1				41·37–46
40	QUINTESSÊNCIA	723	<1				43·33–51

Asia-Pacific

0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1

8 teams at 1% or more
ordered by their chance of the Major

Sort: pick a column

	Team
2	The MongolZ Stage 2 77%, stage 1 23%	1,318	>99	77	23	1·1–2
1 seat in Stage 2
3	BC.Game Stage 2 20%, stage 1 80%	1,318	>99	20	80	2·1–2
7	Chinggis Warriors Stage 1 87%	1,084	87		87	3·3–6
1	TYLOO Stage 2 3%, stage 1 75%	1,340	78	3	75	4·3–6
6	FlyQuest Stage 1 68%	1,093	68		68	5·3–7
4 seats in Stage 1 · 5 Major seats in Asia-Pacific
5	5star Stage 1 51%	1,111	51		51	5·4–7
4	Lynn Vision Stage 1 10%	1,190	10		10	7·5–8
9	NEXVOID Stage 1 6%	995	6		6	7·6–8
8	DEPO	1,041	<1			9·9–11
10	THUNDER dOWNUNDER	971	<1			14·10–15
11	The Huns	944	<1			11·9–13
12	Rare Atom	906	<1			13·11–15
13	Ground Zero	878	<1			12·10–15
14	Alter Ego	819	<1			14·10–17
15	Kaleido	771	<1			17·16–19
16	Abyssal	734	<1			12·10–17
17	Just Swing	724	<1			18·15–20
18	Vitalem Aerem	721	<1			20·19–22
19	Rooster	718	<1			16·14–19
22	Nas	679	<1			23·20–25
23	THE UNIT	676	<1			19·17–22
24	Revenge	659	<1			25·22–28
25	5dads	649	<1			23·21–25
27	Haunted House	643	<1			30·27–31
28	Mindfreak	632	<1			21·19–23
29	XDM	625	<1			28·25–29
30	LFO 8	602	<1			26·23–28
32	Ding Cuts	590	<1			unranked·34–unranked
33	LFO 9	574	<1			32·22–33
34	MARKandLARRY	574	<1			28·24–31
35	ex-Arcade	565	<1			31·27–32
36	Legion	536	<1			33·27–34
37	madlikewizards	535	<1			34·32–35
38	SemperFi	518	<1			36·35–37
39	The KnockoutX	511	<1			30·28–34
40	BORING PLAYERS	510	<1			unranked·30–unranked

These figures are least certain near the lines. A team a few places either side of a line can cross it, and one event can move a team a long way in a few days.

How often the model has been right

Our evaluation on the last two Majors (Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026): the model's forecasts for each region's top 40, made before each cut, against who actually qualified. Of the teams the model gave a chance in each band, the share that actually made it.

The model said	Stage 1+	Stage 2+	Stage 3+
0–10%	3% of 255	2% of 337	0% of 394
10–20%	19% of 26	10% of 20	44% of 9
20–30%	35% of 17	33% of 15	13% of 8
30–40%	30% of 10	18% of 11	57% of 7
40–50%	50% of 16	50% of 6	100% of 1
50–60%	30% of 10	50% of 6	33% of 6
60–70%	69% of 16	38% of 8	—
70–80%	56% of 16	88% of 8	50% of 4
80–90%	89% of 9	67% of 9	100% of 4
90–100%	94% of 72	100% of 27	100% of 14

Model

v1.7 · 2026-10-20Matches already drawn are now played between the teams drawn. Before, a drawn match only placed its two teams in the event, and each run paired the teams by our own rule, so a run could have them meet someone else.
v1.6 · 2026-10-15An event under way whose groups are drawn one at a time is now played as its groups and then its playoff. Before, each drawn group was taken for a whole stage of the format, so the playoff was lost and the last groups drawn took the top places.
v1.5 · 2026-10-04An event on its last day is now played to its end while it still has a match to play. The forecast is made in the early morning, before that day's matches, and an event ending that day had been read as finished without its final, its prize money paid on the results so far.
v1.4 · 2026-10-03An event under way is now played to its end on its announced format. Before, an event was left out on its first day, before any match was played, and once under way it was read from the matches played so far, as if it ended there.
v1.3 · 2026-10-02A team that took over another team's lineup — three or more of its five players, as Valve's own standings read it — now starts halfway between a newcomer's strength rating and that team's, instead of as a newcomer. Luminosity, the former Monte lineup, had been rated as a team new to the scene.
v1.2 · 2026-10-02The forecast now knows the field of every event before the cut that Liquipedia lists, not only the largest events, and a team known to play one is not also expected at other events beyond its usual rate. The evaluation was made without the smaller fields.
v1.1 · 2026-09-29Matches already played in an event under way now count with the event's ranking weight, as the matches it still has to play already did. Before, an event whose prize pool was not yet published counted its played matches at the lowest weight.

Race to the Major

Europe

Americas

Asia-Pacific

How often the model has been right

Model