Inner Circle
Europe #15at the Major
- 13
Luminosity - 14
Ninjas in Pyjamas - 15Inner Circle
- 16
3DMAX - 17
magic
NemesisStake Ranked Episode 5. In our runs where they finish in the top half: 50%. In the runs where they finish in the bottom half: <1%.
The verdict
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Inner Circle hold the 15th.
Their next match, vs Nemesis on 27 Oct. In our runs where Inner Circle win: 38%. Where they lose: 9%. The same match moves 100 Thieves: 54% where Inner Circle win, 59% where they lose.
Their calendar to the cut
Who they are racing
Inner Circle22 · 16–2915▼6, 6 places down at the cut24
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
Inner Circle1,516Inner Circle22 · 16–2924%FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
How they got here
39 matches in Valve's six-month window, 26 won, across 9 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
SangalOct 12
0–2
Ninjas in PyjamasOct 12
0–2
SangalOct 12
2–0
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 82% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 63% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 54% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -8.91.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 31% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -23.44.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 28% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.01.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Inner Circle that is 1,534.6 minus 18.7.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 1.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 1,534.6; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Inner Circle: Above the median of the 28 chasing the slots on opponent network, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and LAN wins.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
10 of the 39 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 26.1 points.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.