Stake Ranked Episode 5
Why it matters
magic
BIG
Inner Circle
fnatic
Eternal Fire
NemesisRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 25%. From a final it pays: 94%, up to >99% with the title, past 50%. <1% to >99% here.
In our runs magic are above the 29% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 28 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 24%. From a final it pays: 90%, up to >99% with the title, past 50%. <1% to >99% here.
In our runs BIG are above the 26% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 26 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: <1%. From a semi-final it pays: 23%, up to 98% with the title; past 50% with a final. <1% to 98% here.
In our runs Inner Circle are above the 23% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 23 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 3%. From a final it pays: 50%, past 50%. <1% to 50% here.
In our runs fnatic are above the 10% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 10 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 5%. From a final it pays: 34%. Never past 50% here: 34% at best, with a final. <1% to 34% here.
In our runs Eternal Fire are above the 7% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 1%. From a final it pays: 22%, up to 51% with the title; past 50% with the title. <1% to 51% here.
In our runs Nemesis are above the 5% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 5 points below today's.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Drawn matches
Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.
The field
AstralisEU #8 · Elo 1,734
2
In the race, 69% for the Major: 
B8EU #10 · Elo 1,710
3
MIBRAM #3 · Elo 1,710
4
In the race, 29% for the Major: magicEU #17 · Elo 1,657
5
In the race, 26% for the Major: BIGEU #19 · Elo 1,653
6
In the race, 23% for the Major: Inner CircleEU #15 · Elo 1,640
7
In the race, 10% for the Major: fnaticEU #29 · Elo 1,640
8
In the race, 5% for the Major: NemesisEU #23 · Elo 1,636
9
In the race, 7% for the Major: Eternal FireEU #27 · Elo 1,628
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 23 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.