// Major qualification · Valve regional standings

Who is on their way to the Major

11days
to the cut · 2 Nov
PGL Major Singapore 2026 · 25 Nov – 13 Dec
Europe
7/18open · 16 in play
6 st36 st26 st1
Americas
3/9open · 7 in play
2 st31 st26 st1
Asia-Pacific
3/5open · 6 in play
0 st31 st24 st1

The percentages are our model, not Valve's: a simulation of the matches still to be played before the cut. Valve's Regional Standings on the cut date decide the Major. Every team, by region: Race to the Major.

What can still move it

// Events before the cut expected to move the race by 10 points or more · 11 days left
Nowrunning CCT South America 2026 Series 7 Tier BOct 13 – Oct 2412dOnline$15,000Oct 13–24OnlineTier B 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning CCT Europe 2026 Series 11 Tier BOct 13 – Oct 2513dOnline$25,000Oct 13–25OnlineTier B 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Tier BOct 14 – Oct 2714dOnline$30,000Oct 14–27OnlineTier B 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning United21 Season 57 Tier COct 15 – Nov 118dOnline$10,000Oct 15–Nov 1OnlineTier C 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning CCT Europe 2026 Challengers 8 Tier COct 17 – Oct 259dOnline$5,000Oct 17–25OnlineTier C 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning DraculaN Season 7 Tier BOct 19 – Oct 235dLAN$35,000Oct 19–23LANTier B Playing: HEROIC, FaZe, JiJieHao, Eternal Fire, Luminosity +1 0impact Under way

Playing: HEROIC, FaZe, JiJieHao, Eternal Fire, Luminosity, SINNERS

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning 1win Private Club 2 Tier AOct 19 – Oct 224dLAN$100,000Oct 19–22LANTier A Playing: magic, BIG, fnatic 0impact Under way

Playing: magic, BIG, fnatic

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Tier BOct 19 – Oct 224dOnlineOct 19–22OnlineTier B 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning Fiesta Series 3: Closed Qualifier Tier COct 19 – Oct 246dOnlineOct 19–24OnlineTier C 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning CCT Europe 2026 Series 12 Tier BOct 20 – Nov 113dOnline$25,000Oct 20–Nov 1OnlineTier B 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning VOID Autumn Cup 2026 Tier COct 20 – Oct 245dLAN$12,000Oct 20–24LANTier C Playing: Chinggis Warriors, Lynn Vision, NEXVOID 0impact Under way

Playing: Chinggis Warriors, Lynn Vision, NEXVOID

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning ESL Challenger League Season 52: Europe - Cup 9 Tier COct 21 – Oct 233dOnline$7,000Oct 21–23OnlineTier C 0impact Under way

Under wayEvent page ›

Nowrunning Circuit X Curitiba 4 Tier COct 21 – Oct 266dLAN$15,000Oct 21–26LANTier C Playing: Imperial, paiN, Fluxo, BESTIA 13impact Under way
At stake here: Imperial, BESTIA
Chance of the Major now, and after a bottom-half or a top-half finish here · the most at stake first: the longest bar
Imperial#9 Americas 56%now 33%62%
BESTIA#14 Americas 2%now <1%5%

Under wayEvent page ›

2days Hotspawn 10k Showdown Tier COct 24 – Oct 252dLAN$13,229Oct 24–25LANTier C ≈0impact · estimate Field not published

Field not published · ≈ the impact is our estimate of who comesEvent page ›

2days PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Tier SOct 24 – Oct 307dLAN$1,250,000Oct 24–30LANTier S Playing: DENDELE, Nemiga, TYLOO, Natus Vincere 39impact 16 teams listed
At stake here: Natus Vincere, Nemiga, TYLOO +1
Chance of the Major now, and after a bottom-half or a top-half finish here · the most at stake first: the longest bar
Natus Vincere#28 Europe 76%now 53%>99%
Nemiga#11 Europe 80%now 73%>99%
TYLOO#1 Asia-Pacific 78%now 76%>99%
+1 more: DENDELE
DENDELE#7 Americas 90%now 90%>99%

16 teams listedEvent page ›

4days DFRAG Invitational 2026 Tier BOct 26 – Nov 17dLAN$28,440Oct 26–Nov 1LANTier B Playing: FlyQuest, NEXVOID 5impact 10 teams listed

Playing: FlyQuest, NEXVOID

10 teams listedEvent page ›

5days Stake Ranked Episode 5 Tier AOct 27 – Oct 304dLAN$100,000Oct 27–30LANTier A Playing: B8, magic, BIG, Inner Circle, Eternal Fire +2 117impact 9 teams listed
At stake here: magic, BIG, Inner Circle +3
Chance of the Major now, and after a bottom-half or a top-half finish here · the most at stake first: the longest bar
magic#17 Europe 29%now <1%58%
BIG#19 Europe 26%now <1%56%
Inner Circle#15 Europe 24%now <1%50%
+3 more: Eternal Fire, fnatic, Nemesis
Eternal Fire#27 Europe 14%now 3%35%
fnatic#29 Europe 10%now <1%30%
Nemesis#23 Europe 6%now <1%15%

9 teams listedEvent page ›

5days Tesla Cup 2026 Tier BOct 27 – Oct 293dLAN$50,000Oct 27–29LANTier B Playing: FaZe, B8, Luminosity 62impact 8 teams listed
At stake here: B8, FaZe
Chance of the Major now, and after a bottom-half or a top-half finish here · the most at stake first: the longest bar
B8#10 Europe 69%now 3%93%
FaZe#20 Europe 92%now 77%>99%

8 teams listedEvent page ›

7days Gamers Club Masters VII Tier BOct 29 – Nov 14dOnline$30,000Oct 29–Nov 1OnlineTier B Playing: DENDELE, Imperial, paiN 11impact 8 teams listed
At stake here: DENDELE, Imperial, paiN
Chance of the Major now, and after a bottom-half or a top-half finish here · the most at stake first: the longest bar
DENDELE#7 Americas 90%now 55%93%
Imperial#9 Americas 56%now 25%57%
paiN#10 Americas 23%now 11%24%

8 teams listedEvent page ›

7days FiReSPORTS Last Chance 2026 Tier BOct 29 – Nov 14dOnline$75,000Oct 29–Nov 1OnlineTier B ≈1impact · estimate Field not published

Field not published · ≈ the impact is our estimate of who comesEvent page ›

7days CyberClash Season 2 Tier COct 29 – Oct 313dLAN$47,500Oct 29–31LANTier C 0impact 8 teams listed

8 teams listedEvent page ›

Nov 2The cut · the standings the Major field is taken from
11days Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026 Tier SNov 2 – Nov 76dLAN$1,250,000Nov 2–7LANTier S Playing: HEROIC, FaZe, TYLOO, Natus Vincere, B8 Ends after the cut: cannot change qualification

Playing: HEROIC, FaZe, TYLOO, Natus Vincere, B8

Ends after the cut: cannot change qualificationEvent page ›

20days BLAST Rivals Fall 2026 Tier SNov 11 – Nov 155dLAN$1,000,000Nov 11–15LANTier S Ends after the cut: cannot change qualification

Ends after the cut: cannot change qualificationEvent page ›

26days Stake Ranked Episode 6 Tier ANov 17 – Nov 204dLAN$100,000Nov 17–20LANTier A Ends after the cut: cannot change qualification

Ends after the cut: cannot change qualificationEvent page ›

34days PGL Major Singapore 2026 Tier SNov 25 – Dec 1319dLAN$1,250,000Nov 25–Dec 13LANTier S The Major

The MajorEvent page ›

How these numbers are made

Matches that move the race

// Drawn matches in the next two days expected to move the race by 10 points or more · ordered by that and by how often the teams play at tier S
22 Oct · BO3 · DraculaN Season 7 16 impact
JiJieHao win 55% of our runs
JiJieHao
#24 Europe · 17% today
Win28%Lose3%
BC.Game
#3 Asia-Pacific · >99% today
Sure of the Major.
Also moves 100 Thieves: 54% where JiJieHao win, 60% where BC.Game win.

Who is on the bubble

// Drag or play to replay the last 60 days
Europe18 go · 16 still in play
Natus Vincere
B8
100 Thieves
magic
BIG
0%Coin flip100%
Americas9 go · 7 still in play
DENDELE
Wildcard
Imperial
NRG
paiN
0%Coin flip100%
Asia-Pacific5 go · 6 still in play
Chinggis Warriors
TYLOO
FlyQuest
5star
Lynn Vision
0%Coin flip100%
Position and intensity = chance of the Major Tail = where it stood on the first day Lanes reorder as the chances change Up to 26 Sep: worked out afterwards on today's calendar, from the results known on each day and without the lists of who has qualified for each event. From 27 Sep (the mark): the forecast of the day, with those lists, so the step there is the lists, not results
// Our Elo

The simulation plays each match on our own Elo rating, which weights every result by the opponent's strength. On 5,389 Ranked matches it had not seen, the favourite won 64.6%. How it is scored, and every team by it →