// Event · Tier B

DFRAG Invitational 2026

26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026 LAN 13 teams $28,440 prize pool 1 day before the cut
Race impact ?
5
6th largest of 7 before the cut

Why it matters

Facts beside our number
Valve's event weight
0.39
From its prize pool, $28,440, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
2
NEXVOIDFlyQuest
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.
Timing
1 day before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Starts in 4 days. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

2 teams in the race known to attend

Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off

2% to 9% here, whatever their finish.

Out before the quarter-finals
2%
-4 points
Quarter-final
9%
+4 points
Semi-final
—
too few runs
Final
—
too few runs
Win it
—
too few runs

In our runs NEXVOID are above the 6% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.

First match: vs Alter Ego, 26 OctIn our runs: win 9% · lose 2% NEXVOID's page →

In our runs where they lose the final: 53%. From the title it pays: 72%. 46% to 72% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
—
too few runs
Semi-final
46%
-22 points
Final
53%
-15 points
Win it
72%
+4 points

In our runs FlyQuest are above the 68% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the semi-finals, their chance is 22 points below today's.

First match: vs Staqued, 27 OctIn our runs: win 69% · lose 46% FlyQuest's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
—
too few runs
Semi-final
<1%
0 points
Final
<1%
0 points
Win it
<1%
0 points
First match: vs Rooster, 27 Oct Abyssal's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
0 points
Quarter-final
<1%
0 points
Semi-final
—
too few runs
Final
—
too few runs
Win it
—
too few runs
First match: vs NEXVOID, 26 Oct Alter Ego's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
0 points
Quarter-final
<1%
0 points
Semi-final
—
too few runs
Final
—
too few runs
Win it
—
too few runs
First match: vs Off Chops, 26 Oct Ground Zero's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
—
too few runs
Semi-final
<1%
0 points
Final
<1%
0 points
Win it
<1%
0 points
First match: vs Abyssal, 27 Oct Rooster's page →

Drawn matches

2 with a team in the race · bo3's draw

Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.

26 Oct · BO3
NEXVOID win 54% of our runs
#9 Asia-Pacific · 6% today
Win9%Lose2%
#14 Asia-Pacific · <1% today
Out of the race.
27 Oct · BO3
FlyQuest win 94% of our runs
#6 Asia-Pacific · 68% today
Win69%Lose46%
Staqued
not rated
Also moves 5star: 50% where FlyQuest win, 64% where Staqued win.

The field

9 known · in the race · 4 by our model · strongest first, by our Elo
In the race · 68%
Asia-Pacific #6
Elo 1,652 · 30th
In the race · 6%
Asia-Pacific #9
Elo 1,562 · 68th
Asia-Pacific #14
Elo 1,540 · 81st
Asia-Pacific #13
Elo 1,468 · 123rd
Asia-Pacific #16
Elo 1,427 · 174th
Asia-Pacific #19
Elo 1,427 · 175th
Off Chops
Outside the top 40
Elo 1,388 · 228th
Staqued
Outside the top 40
Elo 1,337 · 386th
Finishers
Outside the top 40
Elo 1,333 · 415th
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 22 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • The other 4 seats are filled in each run from who usually plays where; no team is named there.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.