Alter Ego
Asia-Pacific #14at the Major
- 12
Rare Atom - 13
Ground Zero - 14Alter Ego
- 15
Kaleido - 16
Abyssal
NEXVOIDUnder 1% for the Major in our runs. 292 points behind 5star in the last seat today; a median 14th at the cut.
The verdict
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. Alter Ego are 14th, 9 places outside.
Who they are racing
Alter Ego14 · 10–1714▲3, 3 places up at the cut<1In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
Alter Ego819Alter Ego14 · 10–17<1%FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
How they got here
15 matches in Valve's six-month window, 10 won, across 7 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. 3 events since Valve's 5 Oct release are not in its numbers yet; they come first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
MorningstarOct 21
0–1
Rare AtomOct 20
0–1
Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Our estimate of what the event does to the points follows once it has finished.
Lynn VisionOct 14
1–2
Just SwingOct 13
2–1
Chinggis WarriorsOct 12
2–0
The KnockoutXOct 11
2–0
Vitalem AeremOct 10
2–0
The HunsOct 9
2–1
KaleidoOct 8
1–2
LegionOct 7
2–0
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
DENDELEOct 9
0–1
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 62% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.09.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 23% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.22.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Alter Ego that is 724.4 plus 94.4.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 11.5% of the total.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 724.4; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Alter Ego: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
None of the 15 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.