ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 3
As our forecast of 6 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Chinggis Warriors
Lynn Vision
Alter EgoRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 9%. From a final it pays: 22%, up to 45% with the title. Never past 50% here: 45% at best, with the title. 4% to 45% here.
In our runs Chinggis Warriors are above the 9% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
In our runs where they lose the final: 8%. From the title it pays: 25%. Never past 50% here: 25% at best, with the title. 1% to 25% here.
In our runs Lynn Vision are above the 15% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 14 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 5%. From a final it pays: 8%, up to 13% with the title. Never past 50% here: 13% at best, with the title. 2% to 13% here.
In our runs Alter Ego are above the 5% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 3 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 3% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
Lynn VisionAP #4 · Elo 1,614
2
In the race, 5% for the Major: Alter EgoAP #14 · Elo 1,521
3
Rare AtomAP #12 · Elo 1,511
4
In the race, 9% for the Major: Chinggis WarriorsAP #7 · Elo 1,472
5
The HunsAP #11 · Elo 1,462
6
KaleidoAP #15 · Elo 1,433
7
Just SwingAP #17 · Elo 1,415
8
Vitalem AeremAP #18 · Elo 1,380
9
LegionAP #36 · Elo 1,351
10
The KnockoutXAP #39 · Elo 1,349
11
NasAP #22 · Elo 1,349
12
XDMAP #29 · Elo 1,347
THE UNITAP #23 · Elo 1,305
15
BORING PLAYERSAP #40
What it moved
Chinggis WarriorsAsia-Pacific · top half
9% → 11%
+2 points
Alter EgoAsia-Pacific · top half
5% → 6%
+1 point
Lynn VisionAsia-Pacific · top half
15% → 15%
+1 point
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
Lynn Vision won the tournament, but Alter Ego gained more from it: 102 points against 34. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 6 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 6 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 14 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.