Outside the profile on three of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected and activity.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on five of seven since the 7 September release. Down on activity.Dashed is Chinggis Warriors's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered35Bounty collected42Opponent network48LAN wins44Activity10Win rate96Head to head85
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. Chinggis Warriors are 7th, 2 places outside.
87%Chinggis Warriors are 7th, 2 places outside the 5, 27 points behind 5starChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
Chinggis WarriorsComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
12 matches in Valve's six-month window, 9 won, across 4 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. 3 events since Valve's 5 Oct release are not in its numbers yet; they come first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
Under way· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record2–0
Finish—
Prize—
2 matches
WNEXVOIDOct 212–1
WWept Xyloid MelancholyOct 202–1
Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Our estimate of what the event does to the points follows once it has finished.
Not in Valve's numbers yet· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record4–2
Finish4th
Prize$1,000
≈-34pts
Our estimate · not Valve's
Asia-Pacific #3 without it, #4 with it.
6 matches
LAlter EgoOct 120–2
WKaleidoOct 112–1
WTHE UNITOct 102–1
WBORING PLAYERSOct 92–0
LLynn VisionOct 81–2
WVitalem AeremOct 72–1
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
Not in Valve's numbers yet· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record4–1
Finish1st
Prize$1,650
≈+170pts
Our estimate · not Valve's
Asia-Pacific #7 without it, #4 with it.
5 matches
W5starOct 112–1
WNEXVOIDOct 112–1
WThe HunsOct 102–0
WtheONE 1337Oct 92–0
L5starOct 81–2
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
3 Oct – 4 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+29.43
Still counts100%
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 27 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Sep – 1 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+15.39
Still counts100%
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 27 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the 27 slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 27 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
8 Apr – 9 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia - Cup 3
Record1–1
Head to head-0.19
Still counts1%
These results are down to 1% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 27 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Chinggis Warriors that is 1,025.2 plus 59.0.
The two parts
Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value1,025.2
+
Head to head+59.0
=
Points1,084
The head-to-head correction is 5.4% of the total.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.360median 0.390
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.330median 0.344
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.161median 0.159
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.400median 0.435
Chinggis WarriorsMedian of the 10 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,025.2; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Chinggis Warriors: Above the median of the 10 chasing the slots on opponent network, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and LAN wins.
None of the 12 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.