// Event · Tier C
MESA Pro Series Fall 2026
8 Oct – 11 Oct 2026
LAN
$30,000 prize pool Finished
As our forecast of 7 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Valve's event weight
0.40
From its prize pool, $30,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
0
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.
Timing
22 days before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Starts in 1 day. Everything here still counts on the day.
Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
No team in the race is expected here.
The field
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
theONE 1337
0–1Quarter-final
—
The Audacity
0–1Quarter-final
—
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 7 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 7 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 11 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.