// Event · Tier B

FRAG University 2026

9 Oct – 12 Oct 2026 LAN 16 teams $25,000 prize pool Finished

Winner

Wildcard

7–0 · Americas #12

Race impact 12 · it moved 10

As our forecast of 8 October saw it, before the event started.

Why it matters

Facts beside our number

Valve's event weight

0.38

From its prize pool, $25,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.

Teams in the race known to attend

Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures. Our model expects 3 more.

Timing

21 days before the cut

TodayCut · 2 Nov

Starts in 1 day. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

0 teams in the race known to attend

No team in the race is known to attend yet. Our model expects 3 there, but names only teams on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.

The field

0 known · in the race · 16 by our model · strongest first, by our Elo

What it moved

Ours · from our forecast of 8 October

Race impact before it started

Points of Major chance it was expected to move, over everyone who might have come.

Expected of the teams that came

The same, for the teams in the race who did come.

What it moved

How far their chance of the Major moved, given the half of the field each finished in.

DENDELEAmericas · top half 88% → 94% +6 points

NRGAmericas · top half 83% → 86% +4 points

WildcardAmericas · top half 6% → 7% +1 point

How it finished

Results from bo3

Winner

Wildcard

7–0Americas #12

Final

DENDELE

7–2Americas #7

Semi-final

Imperial

7–2Americas #9

Semi-final

NRG

6–2Americas #8

Winners and losers

Our reckoning, until Valve's release

Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.

Elusive 3–3Out before the quarter-finals +293 —

Wildcard 7–0Winner +229 —

Unreal Nightmare 4–3Quarter-final +220 —

Holy Cannoli 2–4Out before the quarter-finals +200 —

Last Dance 3–4Out before the quarter-finals +183 —

Thirdsite 1–3Out before the quarter-finals +143 —

Marsborne 5–3Quarter-final +131 <1% → <1%unchanged

NRG 6–2Semi-final +118 83% → 89%▲ 6

DENDELE 7–2Final +110 88% → 97%▲ 9

Imperial 7–2Semi-final +93 —

Without a Roof 4–4Quarter-final +87 —

SportsBetExpert 5–3Quarter-final +69 —

Celestial 1–3Out before the quarter-finals +54 —

Fathom Gaming 1–4Out before the quarter-finals +50 —

Hairy Scary Bandits 1–3Out before the quarter-finals +49 —

NXG 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -14 —

Midwest Maniacs 0–4Out before the quarter-finals -19 —

Malicious Intent 0–4Out before the quarter-finals -23 —

Alter Ego 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -45 —

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 8 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 8 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 12 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.