1win Private Club 2
Why it matters
BIG
fnatic
magicRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 26%. Anything further is too rare to measure.
In our runs BIG stay at or below the 26% they hold today, whatever their finish here.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their usual finish here: 10%. Anything else is too rare to measure.
In our runs fnatic stay at or below the 10% they hold today, whatever their finish here.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 29%. Anything further is too rare to measure.
In our runs magic stay at or below the 29% they hold today, whatever their finish here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
The field
PARIVISIONEU #30 · Elo 1,741
2
The MongolZAP #2 · Elo 1,731
3
In the race, 29% for the Major: magicEU #17 · Elo 1,657
4
In the race, 26% for the Major: BIGEU #19 · Elo 1,653
5
In the race, 10% for the Major: fnaticEU #29 · Elo 1,640
6
LiquidAM #5 · Elo 1,637
7
AllianceEU #18 · Elo 1,605
PRIVATEOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,478
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 22 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.