Stake Pulse Beat III
As our forecast of 11 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Inner Circle
100 Thieves
fnatic
Alliance
JiJieHao
Ninjas in Pyjamas
B8
HOTU
HEROIC
BC.GameRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 29%. From a semi-final it pays: 55%, up to 98% with the title, past 50%. 13% to 98% here.
In our runs Inner Circle are above the 33% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 20 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 14%. From a semi-final it pays: 42%, up to 98% with the title; past 50% with a final. 3% to 98% here.
In our runs 100 Thieves are above the 18% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 15 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 20%. From a quarter-final it pays: 33%, up to 87% with the title; past 50% with a final. 20% to 87% here.
In our runs fnatic are above the 30% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 11 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 8%. From a quarter-final it pays: 19%, up to 62% with a final; past 50% with a final. 8% to 62% here.
In our runs Alliance are above the 18% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 11 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 8%. From a quarter-final it pays: 17%, up to 47% with a final. Never past 50% here: 47% at best, with a final. 8% to 47% here.
In our runs JiJieHao are above the 15% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 7 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 68%. From a quarter-final it pays: 93%, up to >99% with the title. 68% to >99% here.
In our runs Ninjas in Pyjamas are above the 83% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 16 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 59%. From a semi-final it pays: 92%, up to 99% with the title. 35% to 99% here.
In our runs B8 are above the 68% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 33 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 2%. From a final it pays: 10%, up to 74% with the title; past 50% with the title. <1% to 74% here.
In our runs HOTU are above the 5% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 84%. From a semi-final it pays: 97%, up to >99% with the title. 73% to >99% here.
In our runs HEROIC are above the 89% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 16 points below today's.
98% to >99% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs BC.Game are above the 98% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
AstralisEU #8 · Elo 1,737
2
In the race, 89% for the Major: HEROICEU #12 · Elo 1,718
3
In the race, 68% for the Major: B8EU #10 · Elo 1,710
4
MIBRAM #3 · Elo 1,709
5
In the race, 83% for the Major: Ninjas in PyjamasEU #14 · Elo 1,683
6
LiquidAM #5 · Elo 1,668
7
In the race, 5% for the Major: HOTUEU #25 · Elo 1,667
8
In the race, 30% for the Major: fnaticEU #29 · Elo 1,660
9
In the race, 33% for the Major: Inner CircleEU #15 · Elo 1,658
10
In the race, 18% for the Major: 100 ThievesEU #22 · Elo 1,645
11
In the race, 18% for the Major: AllianceEU #18 · Elo 1,633
12
In the race, 15% for the Major: JiJieHaoEU #24 · Elo 1,623
13
SangalEU #33 · Elo 1,591
14
In the race, 98% for the Major: BC.GameAP #3 · Elo 1,562
15
BBLEU #31 · Elo 1,553
SashiEU #54 · Elo 1,510
BetclicEU #37 · Elo 1,508
EnvyOutside the top 40
What it moved
Inner CircleEurope · bottom half
33% → 12%
-21 points
fnaticEurope · top half
30% → 43%
+13 points
100 ThievesEurope · top half
18% → 30%
+12 points
JiJieHaoEurope · bottom half
15% → 8%
-7 points
HOTUEurope · bottom half
5% → <1%
-4 points
Ninjas in PyjamasEurope · top half
83% → 88%
+4 points
HEROICEurope · top half
89% → 90%
+1 point
BC.GameAsia-Pacific · bottom half
98% → 98%
0 points
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
Envy
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Sashi
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 11 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 11 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 17 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.