madlikewizards
Asia-Pacific #37at the Major
- 35ex-Arcade
- 36
Legion - 37madlikewizards
- 38
SemperFi - 39
The KnockoutX
Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 576 points behind 5star in the last seat today; a median 34th at the cut.
The verdict
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. madlikewizards are 37th, 32 places outside.
Who they are racing
madlikewizards34 · 32–3537▲26, 26 places up at the cut<1In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
madlikewizards535madlikewizards34 · 32–35<1%FlyQuest and Chinggis Warriors come up into the 5, Lynn Vision and 5star fall out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
How they got here
5 matches in Valve's six-month window, 3 won, across 4 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
MindfreakOct 10
1–2
FlyQuestOct 10
0–1
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.08.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 9 slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 9 slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 9 slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For madlikewizards that is 499.9 plus 35.1.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 6.6% of the total.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 499.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
madlikewizards: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
None of the 5 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.