← Race to the Major

DETONATE

Americas #39
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
carN · chante · CrePoW · tatm · TH0R
Outside the profile on six of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins, activity and win rate.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 7 September release. Dashed is DETONATE's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered18 Bounty collected18 Opponent network23 LAN wins28 Activity21 Win rate6 Head to head39
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
DETONATE are 39th, 30 places outside the 9, 573 points behind Imperial
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
39th
  1. 37FarmVille
  2. 38MIBR fe
  3. 39DETONATE
  4. 40QUINTESSÊNCIA
  5. 41Mira
30 places outside the Major
VRS points
724
World #200 · 573 behind Imperial
Out of the race

Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 573 points behind Imperial in the last seat today; a median 41st at the cut.

// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. DETONATE are 39th, 30 places outside.

<1% DETONATE are 39th, 30 places outside the 9, 573 points behind Imperial Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1FURIA1 · 1–12, 1 place up at the cut>99
2Legacy2 · 2–21, 1 place down at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
39z3 · 3–44, 1 place up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
4MIBR4 · 3–43, 1 place down at the cut>99
5Liquid6 · 5–75>99
6M805 · 5–66>99
7DENDELE7 · 6–9791
8Wildcard8 · 7–1512, 4 places up at the cut80
9NRG9 · 8–128, 1 place down at the cut50
The cut · top 9 go
10Imperial10 · 8–119, 1 place down at the cut41
11paiN11 · 8–1310, 1 place down at the cut24
12BESTIA12 · 9–1514, 2 places up at the cut11
13Fluxo12 · 11–1311, 2 places down at the cut4
14SportsBetExpert14 · 13–1713, 1 place down at the cut<1
15DETONATE41 · 37–4639, 24 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

Wildcard comes up into the 9, Imperial falls out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Legacy1,931
2FURIA1,829
3MIBR1,585
49z1,544
5Liquid1,527
6M801,491
7DENDELE1,368
8NRG1,322
9Imperial1,297
10paiN1,287
11Fluxo1,277
12Wildcard1,239
13SportsBetExpert1,199
14BESTIA1,189
39DETONATE724
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2Legacy2 · 2–2>99%
1FURIA1 · 1–1>99%
4MIBR4 · 3–4>99%
39z3 · 3–4>99%
5Liquid6 · 5–7>99%
6M805 · 5–6>99%
7DENDELE7 · 6–991%
9NRG9 · 8–1250%
10Imperial10 · 8–1141%
11paiN11 · 8–1324%
13Fluxo12 · 11–134%
8Wildcard8 · 7–1580%
14SportsBetExpert14 · 13–17<1%
12BESTIA12 · 9–1511%
15DETONATE41 · 37–46<1%
DETONATEComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Wildcard comes up into the 9, Imperial falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

22 matches in Valve's six-month window, 8 won, across 8 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results and our estimate.

Since Valve's 5 Oct release · not counted yet
Counted by Valve · head to head
8 Oct – 12 Oct
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3
The event's page →
Not in Valve's numbers yet· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record3–2
Finish5th–6th
Prize$1,000
≈+31pts
Our estimate · not Valve's
Americas #41 without it, #37 with it.
5 matches
L Iowa StormboarOct 12 1–2
W Wanted GoonsOct 11 2–0
W Club 333Oct 10 2–0
L Chicken CoopOct 9 1–2
W EMPIREOct 8 2–0

Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.

22 Sep – 26 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 2
The event's page →
Record3–2
Head to head+28.29
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneSep 26A loss -7.38
W VillainousSep 25Bounty collected #3Opponent network #3LAN wins #2 +14.29
W Wanted GoonsSep 24Bounty collected #5Opponent network #6LAN wins #3 +11.95
L LAGSep 23A loss -4.47
W Club 333Sep 22Bounty collected #1Opponent network #5LAN wins #4 +13.90
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the 24 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

14 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-12.31
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Overtake SectorSep 14A loss -12.31
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -12.31.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-1.82
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertSep 11A loss -1.82
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.82.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

3 Sep – 6 Sep
NSTLGA League Season 2
The event's page →
Record2–3
Head to head-2.75
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L regainSep 6A loss -12.30
L Overtake SectorSep 6A loss -13.64
W FarmVilleSep 5Bounty collected #4Opponent network #2LAN wins #5 +14.49
L LAGSep 4A loss -4.29
W NuToriousSep 3Bounty collected #6Opponent network #4LAN wins #6 +12.99
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 6 of the 24 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Aug – 30 Aug
FRAG Midwest: St. Louis 2026
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head+13.10
Still counts96%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertAug 30A loss -1.78
L LAGAug 29A loss -4.86
W regainAug 29Bounty collected #2Opponent network #1LAN wins #1 +19.74
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 24 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Aug – 26 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 1
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-28.41
Still counts94%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousAug 26A loss -13.04
L NuToriousAug 25A loss -15.37
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -28.41.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

19 Jun
ESEA Season 57 Finals North America
Record0–1
Head to head-7.06
Still counts48%

These results are down to 48% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousJun 19A loss -7.06
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -7.06.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Jun – 13 Jun
NSTLGA League Season 1
Record2–2
Head to head-4.52
Still counts44%

These results are down to 44% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Iowa StormboarJun 13A loss -7.29
W Wanted GoonsJun 13Bounty collected #7Opponent network #8LAN wins #7 +5.65
L Festina LenteJun 12A loss -9.17
W Iowa StormboarJun 11Bounty collected #8Opponent network #7LAN wins #8 +6.29
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 6 of the 24 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For DETONATE that is 739.9 minus 15.5.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value739.9
+
Head to head−15.5
=
Points724

The head-to-head correction is 2.1% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.287median 0.520
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.248median 0.496
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.049median 0.206
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.096median 0.702
DETONATEMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.287 + 0.248 + 0.049 + 0.096
Their average÷ 4 = 0.170
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.170 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 740.0
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 739.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

DETONATE: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,423
Rank by our Elo181 of 558
Valve's world standing200

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 22 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W L W L L L L W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 22 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.