Journey Autumn 2026
As our forecast of 1 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
SportsBetExpert
100 Thieves
Ninjas in Pyjamas
JiJieHao
Eternal Fire
BC.Game
Voca
FOKUS
SINNERSRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 3%. From a quarter-final it pays: 23%, up to 69% with a final; past 50% with a final. 3% to 69% here.
In our runs SportsBetExpert are above the 18% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 15 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 41%. From a final it pays: 54%, up to 75% with the title, past 50%. 12% to 75% here.
In our runs 100 Thieves are above the 42% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 29 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 40%. From a semi-final it pays: 47%, up to 77% with the title; past 50% with a final. 20% to 77% here.
In our runs Ninjas in Pyjamas are above the 43% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 23 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 6%. From a semi-final it pays: 11%, up to 55% with the title; past 50% with the title. 1% to 55% here.
In our runs JiJieHao are above the 9% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 7 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 12%. From a final it pays: 19%, up to 32% with the title. Never past 50% here: 32% at best, with the title. 6% to 32% here.
In our runs Eternal Fire are above the 13% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 7 points below today's.
<1% to 7% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs BC.Game are above the 3% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 20%. From a semi-final it pays: 40%, up to 82% with the title; past 50% with a final. 6% to 82% here.
In our runs Voca are above the 22% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 16 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: <1%. From a quarter-final it pays: 3%, up to 15% with the title. Never past 50% here: 15% at best, with the title. <1% to 15% here.
In our runs FOKUS are above the 3% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
<1% to 8% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs SINNERS are above the 2% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 16% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
100 ThievesEU #20 · Elo 1,623
2
In the race, 43% for the Major: Ninjas in PyjamasEU #22 · Elo 1,618
3
In the race, 13% for the Major: Eternal FireEU #51 · Elo 1,614
4
In the race, 2% for the Major: SINNERSEU #44 · Elo 1,586
5
In the race, 22% for the Major: VocaAM #17 · Elo 1,576
6
In the race, 3% for the Major: FOKUSEU #39 · Elo 1,572
7
In the race, 9% for the Major: JiJieHaoEU #25 · Elo 1,564
8
SangalEU #234 · Elo 1,558
9
In the race, 18% for the Major: SportsBetExpertAM #12 · Elo 1,545
10
In the race, 3% for the Major: BC.GameEU #30 · Elo 1,541
SashiEU #37 · Elo 1,538
9INEEU #54 · Elo 1,524
Johnny SpeedsEU #79 · Elo 1,487
BASEMENT BOYSEU #65 · Elo 1,471
BBLEU #40 · Elo 1,459
PrestigeEU · Elo 1,414
HAVUEU #90 · Elo 1,387
EAC EXTRAOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,379
Nordic PartnersEU #94 · Elo 1,361
MTXEU #218 · Elo 1,323
LilmixEU #162 · Elo 1,238
XEPTOutside the top 40
Winners and losers
Sangal
4–2
Eternal Fire
7–2
BBL
5–3
SINNERS
4–2
Voca
4–2
Ninjas in Pyjamas
8–1Winner
FOKUS
4–2
JiJieHao
6–1
Johnny Speeds
2–4
Lilmix
1–4
100 Thieves
5–2
Nordic Partners
2–3
SportsBetExpert
2–3
MTX
1–4
HAVU
2–3
BASEMENT BOYS
2–4
BC.Game
4–2
9INE
2–3
Sashi
1–4
EAC EXTRA
1–4
Prestige
2–3
XEPT
0–5
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 1 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Points are Valve's change between its releases of 7 September and 5 October, so other events and ageing move them too.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.