ESL Pro League Season 24
As our forecast of 2 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Natus Vincere
1WIN
PARIVISION
ShindeN
BetBoomRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 64%. From a quarter-final it pays: 98%, up to >99% with a final. 64% to >99% here.
In our runs Natus Vincere are above the 80% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 16 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 1%. From a quarter-final it pays: 56%, past 50%. 1% to 56% here.
In our runs 1WIN are above the 7% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 69%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 69% to >99% here.
In our runs PARIVISION are above the 75% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 6%. From a quarter-final it pays: 94%, in the 220 of 8,000 runs that reach it.
In our runs ShindeN stay at or below the 8% they hold today, whatever their finish here. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 3 points below today's.
98% to >99% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs BetBoom are above the 99% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 1 point below today's.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
The field
SpiritEU #1 · Elo 1,954
2
VitalityEU #5 · Elo 1,892
3
FalconsEU #3 · Elo 1,881
4
LegacyAM #1 · Elo 1,845
5
MOUZEU #2 · Elo 1,832
6
G2EU #6 · Elo 1,816
7
FURIAAM #2 · Elo 1,809
8
AuroraEU #9 · Elo 1,788
9
In the race, 80% for the Major: Natus VincereEU #8 · Elo 1,781
10
In the race, 99% for the Major: BetBoomEU #12 · Elo 1,772
11
9zAM #3 · Elo 1,730
12
In the race, 75% for the Major: PARIVISIONEU #14 · Elo 1,698
13
TYLOOAP #2 · Elo 1,679
14
M80AM #7 · Elo 1,651
15
In the race, 7% for the Major: 1WINEU #24 · Elo 1,648
16
In the race, 8% for the Major: ShindeNAM #18 · Elo 1,578
What it moved
1WINEurope · top half
7% → 60%
+53 points
PARIVISIONEurope · top half
75% → >99%
+25 points
Natus VincereEurope · bottom half
80% → 64%
-16 points
ShindeNAmericas · bottom half
8% → 6%
-3 points
BetBoomEurope · bottom half
99% → 98%
-1 point
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
Vitality won the tournament, but PARIVISION gained more from it: 146 points against 52. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 2 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 2 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 11 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.