1win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier
As our forecast of 6 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
fnatic
HOTU
K27
SINNERS
Nemesis
GamerLegionRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 7%. From a final it pays: 15%, up to 26% with the title. Never past 50% here: 26% at best, with the title. 5% to 26% here.
In our runs fnatic are above the 8% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 8%. From a final it pays: 22%, up to 35% with the title. Never past 50% here: 35% at best, with the title. 4% to 35% here.
In our runs HOTU are above the 14% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 9 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: <1%. From a final it pays: 7%, up to 14% with the title. Never past 50% here: 14% at best, with the title. <1% to 14% here.
In our runs K27 are above the 2% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
<1% to 6% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs SINNERS are above the 2% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 1 point below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 6%. From a final it pays: 23%, up to 33% with the title. Never past 50% here: 33% at best, with the title. 3% to 33% here.
In our runs Nemesis are above the 13% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 10 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: <1%. From a final it pays: 17%, up to 28% with the title. Never past 50% here: 28% at best, with the title. <1% to 28% here.
In our runs GamerLegion are above the 6% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 4% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
HOTUEU #25 · Elo 1,670
2
In the race, 6% for the Major: GamerLegionEU #21 · Elo 1,654
3
In the race, 13% for the Major: NemesisEU #23 · Elo 1,653
4
Nuclear TigeRESEU #38 · Elo 1,638
5
In the race, 8% for the Major: fnaticEU #29 · Elo 1,627
6
In the race, 2% for the Major: K27EU #26 · Elo 1,621
7
In the race, 2% for the Major: SINNERSEU #34 · Elo 1,608
MetizportEU #41 · Elo 1,580
BET-MEU #52 · Elo 1,566
PhantomEU #53 · Elo 1,538
BetclicEU #37 · Elo 1,528
AcendEU #47 · Elo 1,527
STATEEU #89 · Elo 1,526
SashiEU #54 · Elo 1,510
PRIVATEOutside the top 40
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
PRIVATE
3–0Winner
fnatic
3–0
SINNERS
1–1
Acend
1–1
STATE
0–1
BET-M
0–1
HOTU
2–1
K27
1–1
Phantom
0–1
Metizport
0–1
Sashi
0–1
GamerLegion
2–1
Nuclear TigeRES
1–1
Nemesis
0–1
Betclic
0–1
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 6 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 10 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.