Thunderpick World Championship 2026
As our forecast of 12 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Ninjas in Pyjamas
BetBoom
Virtus.pro
PARIVISIONRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 69%. From a semi-final it pays: 97%. 69% to 97% here.
In our runs Ninjas in Pyjamas are above the 74% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 81%. From a semi-final it pays: >99%. 81% to >99% here.
In our runs BetBoom are above the 87% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 6 points below today's.
<1% to 4% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs Virtus.pro are above the 1% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 1 point below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 90%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 90% to >99% here.
In our runs PARIVISION are above the 97% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 7 points below today's.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
The field
FalconsEU #5 · Elo 1,879
2
AuroraEU #7 · Elo 1,830
3
FURIAAM #2 · Elo 1,803
4
LegacyAM #1 · Elo 1,791
5
In the race, 87% for the Major: BetBoomEU #9 · Elo 1,745
6
In the race, 97% for the Major: PARIVISIONEU #30 · Elo 1,734
7
9zAM #4 · Elo 1,728
8
In the race, 74% for the Major: Ninjas in PyjamasEU #14 · Elo 1,683
9
In the race, 1% for the Major: Virtus.proEU #40 · Elo 1,629
What it moved
BetBoomEurope · top half
87% → 92%
+5 points
Ninjas in PyjamasEurope · bottom half
74% → 69%
-4 points
PARIVISIONEurope · bottom half
97% → 96%
-1 point
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 12 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 12 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 18 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.