// Event · Tier C

ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 2

22 Sep – 29 Sep 2026 Online $2,500 prize pool Finished

Winner

4–0 · Asia-Pacific #6

No forecast of ours was made before it started.

How it finished

Results from bo3

Winner

4–0Asia-Pacific #6

Final

3–2Asia-Pacific #10

Semi-final

3–2Asia-Pacific #13

Semi-final

2–2Asia-Pacific #19

Valve's points · release of 5 Oct

Abyssal 1–2Quarter-final +20

Rooster 2–2Semi-final -9

MARKandLARRY 0–2Out before the quarter-finals -27

Ground Zero 3–2Semi-final -41

FlyQuest 4–0Winner -57

THUNDER dOWNUNDER 3–2Final -70

Mindfreak 0–2Quarter-final -88

Orgless 3–2Quarter-final —

Arcade 2–2Quarter-final —

Fruju 0–2Out before the quarter-finals —

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 23 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
Points are Valve's change between its releases of 7 September and 5 October, so other events and ageing move them too.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.