// MODEL BACKTEST · 730D
Prediction model accuracy
Our Elo strength model powers the win probabilities on every team head-to-head. Here's how it actually performed — each match graded against the prediction the model would have made from only the games before it, over the last 730 days.
52.3%
favorite won
56/107
correct predictions
0.2474
Brier score (lower is better)
Calibration
When the model says it's X% confident, how often is it actually right? A well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal.
| Confidence | Actual win rate | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 51% | 98 |
| 60–70% | 66.7% | 9 |
Recent predictions
| Date | Model favorite | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22 | FURIA over FUT | 57.1% | ✗ |
| Aug 21 | Spirit over Vitality | 58.2% | ✓ |
| Aug 21 | Falcons over Legacy | 65.7% | ✗ |
| Aug 21 | MOUZ over FUT | 60% | ✗ |
| Aug 20 | FURIA over G2 | 56.4% | ✓ |
| Aug 20 | Spirit over B8 | 62.5% | ✓ |
| Aug 20 | FaZe over Vitality | 59.8% | ✗ |
| Aug 20 | Natus Vincere over Legacy | 52.5% | ✗ |
| Aug 20 | Falcons over The MongolZ | 62.7% | ✓ |
| Aug 19 | MOUZ over GamerLegion | 62% | ✓ |
| Aug 19 | FURIA over Aurora | 52.6% | ✓ |
| Aug 19 | magic over FUT | 51.8% | ✗ |
| Aug 19 | Astralis over G2 | 51.9% | ✗ |
| Aug 16 | MIBR over Legacy | 51.7% | ✗ |
| Aug 16 | Astralis over Ninjas in Pyjamas | 53.5% | ✓ |
| Aug 16 | 9z over magic | 57.4% | ✗ |
| Aug 16 | MOUZ over PARIVISION | 58.6% | ✓ |
| Aug 16 | The MongolZ over paiN | 51.2% | ✓ |
| Aug 16 | Vitality over Lynn Vision | 52.5% | ✓ |
| Aug 15 | Spirit over BIG | 59.6% | ✓ |
| Aug 15 | Aurora over JiJieHao | 57.2% | ✓ |
| Aug 15 | 9z over FURIA | 51.6% | ✗ |
| Aug 15 | The MongolZ over Natus Vincere | 52.5% | ✗ |
| Aug 15 | paiN over Wildcard | 54% | ✓ |
| Aug 14 | K27 over MIBR | 56% | ✗ |