← all matches · BLAST Open Fall 2026 · August 28, 2026

Natus Vincere vs paiN

Natus Vincere
2
BO3
paiN
0

Natus Vincere beat paiN 2–0 at BLAST Open Fall 2026 on August 28, 2026 in a BO3 series.

Maps

# Map Natus Vincere paiN Winner
1 Nuke 13 9 Natus Vincere
2 Mirage 13 11 Natus Vincere

What the result was worth

Our Elo model had this one as close to even — neither side carried enough of a rating edge to be called the favourite. The result moved Natus Vincere's rating +17 points to 1,499 as it stood that day; a rating only moves sharply when a result goes against what the record suggested, and here the record suggested very little.

Natus Vincere came into the series having won 2 of their previous 5 matches on record here.

Natus Vincere Elo after
1,499
+17 from this match
paiN Elo after
1,451
-17 from this match
Model call going in
52%
Natus Vincere to win

These maps, before this series

Each side's record on these maps going into the match — the series above is not counted, so the numbers are the form the two teams brought with them rather than the result of it.

MapNatus VincerepaiN
Nuke 0–1 4–2
Mirage 3–2 2–2

Form going in

Natus Vincere

L vs M80 Aug 26
L vs Legacy Aug 20
W vs The MongolZ Aug 15
W vs 3DMAX Aug 12
L vs G2 Jun 15

paiN

L vs FURIA Aug 26
L vs The MongolZ Aug 16
W vs Wildcard Aug 15
L vs 9z Aug 12
L vs Astralis Jul 31

About these numbers

The Elo figures above are our own opponent-weighted rating, not an official one: every team starts at 1500 and points move from loser to winner in proportion to how surprising the result was, weighted by the map margin. That is why a favourite beating an underdog barely moves the table while an upset swings it hard. The method, and how often the model has been right, are both written up on the prediction accuracy page.

These are the ratings as they stood on the day, replayed from the results available at the time — not the teams' ratings today. That is the point: it is what this result was worth when it happened. For where the two sides stand now, the live ladder is on strength ratings, which uses a shorter recent-form window and will read differently for an older match.

Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.