Roman Imperium Cup IX
As our forecast of 6 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
FaZeRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 37%. From the title it pays: 47%. Never past 50% here: 47% at best, with the title. 22% to 47% here.
In our runs FaZe are above the 44% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 23 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
FaZeEU #20 · Elo 1,679
2
SangalEU #33 · Elo 1,580
OGEU #78 · Elo 1,528
SAWEU #35 · Elo 1,516
INFINITEEU #42 · Elo 1,499
EACEU #75 · Elo 1,483
WBTEU #45 · Elo 1,459
Lazer CatsEU #58 · Elo 1,459
RBLSEU #77 · Elo 1,454
NAVI JuniorEU #94 · Elo 1,440
G2 AresEU #95 · Elo 1,415
PUREEU #128 · Elo 1,396
Falcons ForceEU #119 · Elo 1,388
Orion WanderersOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,341
FamalicãoEU #158 · Elo 1,290
SINQUEU #135 · Elo 1,213
What it moved
FaZeEurope · top half
44% → 45%
+1 point
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
FaZe won the tournament, but PURE gained more from it: 366 points against 100. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.
PURE
7–2Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
NAVI Junior
7–3Final
<1% → <1%unchanged
RBLS
3–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Falcons Force
3–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
G2 Ares
5–4Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
OG
3–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Lazer Cats
2–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
SINQU
1–4Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
WBT
1–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Famalicão
0–5Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
EAC
0–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Orion Wanderers
0–5Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
INFINITE
0–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 6 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 6 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 10 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.