Stake Ranked Episode 4
As our forecast of 30 September saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Nemiga
Astralis
Alliance
BIG
Luminosity
fnatic
B8
FaZeRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 47%. From a semi-final it pays: 62%, up to 92% with the title. 33% to 92% here.
In our runs Nemiga are above the 53% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 20 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 52%. From a semi-final it pays: 95%, up to >99% with the title. 52% to >99% here.
In our runs Astralis are above the 80% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 29 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 24%. From a semi-final it pays: 45%, up to >99% with the title; past 50% with a final. 24% to >99% here.
In our runs Alliance are above the 38% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 14 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 32%. From a final it pays: 73%, up to >99% with the title, past 50%. 13% to >99% here.
In our runs BIG are above the 39% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 26 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 11%. From a semi-final it pays: 46%. Never past 50% here: 46% at best, with a semi-final. 11% to 46% here.
In our runs Luminosity are above the 16% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 3%. From a semi-final it pays: 6%, up to 28% with the title. Never past 50% here: 28% at best, with the title. 3% to 28% here.
In our runs fnatic are above the 5% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 3 points below today's.
95% to >99% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs B8 are above the 99% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 4 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: 28%. From a semi-final it pays: 57%, up to >99% with the title. 28% to >99% here.
In our runs FaZe are above the 55% they hold today only with a semi-final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 27 points below today's.
The field
B8EU #10 · Elo 1,728
2
In the race, 53% for the Major: NemigaEU #38 · Elo 1,708
3
In the race, 80% for the Major: AstralisEU #15 · Elo 1,690
4
In the race, 55% for the Major: FaZeEU #7 · Elo 1,689
5
In the race, 39% for the Major: BIGEU #13 · Elo 1,659
6
In the race, 38% for the Major: AllianceEU #16 · Elo 1,626
7
In the race, 5% for the Major: fnaticEU #26 · Elo 1,599
8
In the race, 16% for the Major: LuminosityEU #33 · Elo 1,470
What it moved
LuminosityEurope · top half
16% → 53%
+38 points
BIGEurope · bottom half
39% → 14%
-25 points
NemigaEurope · top half
53% → 75%
+22 points
AllianceEurope · bottom half
38% → 23%
-15 points
AstralisEurope · top half
80% → 90%
+10 points
fnaticEurope · top half
5% → 10%
+4 points
B8Europe · bottom half
99% → 96%
-2 points
1 team in the race is left out of what it moved: too few of our runs had it finish in the half it did.
How it finished
Winners and losers
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 30 September (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 30 September, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are Valve's change between its releases of 7 September and 5 October, so other events and ageing move them too.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.