// Event · Tier C

ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 3

10 Oct – 14 Oct 2026 Online 10 teams $2,500 prize pool Finished
Winner
Rooster
3–1 · Asia-Pacific #19

As our forecast of 9 October saw it, before the event started.

Why it matters

Facts beside our number
Valve's event weight
0.28
From its prize pool, $2,500, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
0
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures. Our model expects 1 more.
Timing
19 days before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Starts in 1 day. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

0 teams in the race known to attend

No team in the race is known to attend yet. Our model expects 1 there, but names only teams on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
<1%
0 points
Semi-final
<1%
0 points
Final
<1%
0 points
Win it
<1%
0 points
Rooster's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
0 points
Quarter-final
<1%
0 points
Semi-final
<1%
0 points
Final
—
too few runs
Win it
—
too few runs

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
0 points
Quarter-final
<1%
0 points
Semi-final
<1%
0 points
Final
<1%
0 points
Win it
—
too few runs
MARKandLARRY's page →

The field

4 known · in the race · 6 by our model · strongest first, by our Elo
1 RoosterAP #19 · Elo 1,426
2 OrglessOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,365
3 MARKandLARRYAP #34 · Elo 1,309
4 FrujuAP #46 · Elo 1,278
Rooster
Asia-Pacific #19
Elo 1,426 · 179th
O
Orgless
Outside the top 40
Elo 1,365 · 274th
M
MARKandLARRY
Asia-Pacific #34
Elo 1,309 · 484th
F
Fruju
Asia-Pacific #46
Elo 1,278 · 520th

How it finished

Results from bo3
Winner
Rooster
3–1Asia-Pacific #19
Final
M
MARKandLARRY
2–1Asia-Pacific #34
Semi-final
F
Fruju
1–2Asia-Pacific #46
Semi-final
O
Orgless
0–2Outside the top 40

Winners and losers

Our reckoning, until Valve's release

Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.

Fruju 1–2Semi-final +103 <1% → <1%unchanged
MARKandLARRY 2–1Final +32 <1% → <1%unchanged
Rooster 3–1Winner +13 <1% → <1%unchanged
Orgless 0–2Semi-final -12 <1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 9 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 9 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
  • Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 14 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.