// Event · Tier B

CCT Europe 2026 Series 10

28 Sep – 10 Oct 2026 Online $25,000 prize pool Finished

Winner

Black Phoenix

7–1 · Europe #68

As our forecast of 27 September saw it, before the event started.

Why it matters

Facts beside our number

Valve's event weight

0.38

From its VRS weight on HLTV, $25,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.

Teams in the race known to attend

Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.

Timing

23 days before the cut

TodayCut · 2 Nov

Starts in 1 day. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

0 teams in the race known to attend

No team in the race is expected here.

The field

0 known · in the race · 1 from qualifiers · strongest first, by our Elo

QCCT Europe 2026 Series 10 Play-InQualifier · from 22 Sep

CCT Europe 2026 Series 10 Play-In

Qualifier · from 22 Sep

How it finished

Results from bo3

Winner

Black Phoenix

7–1Europe #68

Final

Iberian Soul

3–1Europe #46

Semi-final

Nexus

5–1Europe #72

Semi-final

Nemiga

2–1Europe #38

Winners and losers

Our reckoning, until Valve's release

Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.

Nexus 5–1Semi-final +92 —

Black Phoenix 7–1Winner +84 —

Noir Verse 4–1Quarter-final +84 —

Gothic 1–1Quarter-final +55 —

Iberian Soul 3–1Final +42 —

Lavked 3–3Out before the quarter-finals +28 —

MASONIC 2–3Out before the quarter-finals +24 —

Leo 4–2Quarter-final +19 —

Acend 1–1Quarter-final +1 —

ex-Zero Tenacity 3–3Out before the quarter-finals -1 —

megoshort 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -2 —

ex-RUSTEC 3–3Out before the quarter-finals -4 —

EAC 3–2Out before the quarter-finals -4 —

PCIFIC 2–3Out before the quarter-finals -7 —

Phantom Academy 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -7 —

Walczaki 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -8 —

CYBERSHOKE 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -16 —

Enjoy 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -18 —

SINNERS 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -20 —

Omega 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -20 —

Nemiga 2–1Semi-final -21 —

BERG 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -23 —

Azuolas 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -31 —

Butterfly 2–3Out before the quarter-finals -35 —

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 27 September (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 27 September, given they came, against given the finish they had.
Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 10 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.